BEYOND THE REPORT · A CONVERSATION CARRYING THE RETHINK THESIS FORWARD
Operator edge in the new VC landscape
Capital is everywhere. Advantage comes from experience, and from whether founders genuinely want you on their cap table.
SEPTEMBER 202544 MINGUEST · NOAH LICHTENSTEIN
CROSSOVER VC
Capital is no longer really the thing that differentiates you as an investor. Capital has really become commoditized. So what is your right to win?
Noah Lichtenstein · on where edge comes from now
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60 / 40Roughly 60% of capital into small funds that are the first call of today's top founders, 40% direct into about 20 companies at Series A and B
$40MFund one, with capital allocated to 22 funds and 14 direct investments so far; fund commitments range from $7M funds up to $156M
79% / 30Share of all capital raised by venture funds last year that went to about 30 firms; 50% went to 10 firms
120Data points collected on every company their funds invest in, across a portfolio of roughly a thousand, to find the 10 to 15% worth their time
ABOUT THE EPISODE
Noah Lichtenstein has a clear perspective on venture today: capital is everywhere, advantage comes from experience. Venture once prided itself on being ahead of the curve. Now, many funds are chasing the same opportunities, and the real differentiator is whether founders genuinely want you on their cap table.
Crossover's thesis is simple: founders seek out people who've walked the path before. Builders of Databricks, Instacart, Perplexity, Lattice, operators turned investors who can guide the next generation.
Noah also highlights some important realities shaping the market:
Capital concentration. 79% of venture dollars last year went to just 30 firms. Larger funds dominate, while smaller managers compete for differentiated access.
Family office challenge. Direct startup investing is attractive, but without close information flows it's hard to secure the best opportunities early.
Emerging manager landscape. The number of new funds surged during the last cycle, but only a few will consistently deliver outlier outcomes.
Portfolio strategy matters. Writing small angel checks is very different from leading million-dollar allocations. Scaling up requires a distinct advantage.
Where does this lead? Noah sees three clear trends:
Specialization over generalization. Unless you're a top-tier legacy brand, the edge comes from domain expertise and operating experience.
Data as a filter. With exposure to around 1,000 seed-stage companies, Crossover tracks 120+ datapoints to identify the 10 to 15% most promising opportunities.
Excellence attracts excellence. Their dinner series connects billion-dollar founders, early-stage builders, and leaders from other fields. No agenda, just ideas and inspiration compounding.
Venture isn't disappearing. It's evolving. Scale may dominate the headlines, but real edge often lives with the operators, networks, and smaller funds that still feel hands-on and founder-first.
IN HIS WORDS
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CHAPTERS
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Early stage fund providing diversified access to the top performing segment of venture: 60% into small funds, 40% direct at Series A and B out of those portfolios.
Managing partner; two decades in technology, first as an entrepreneur, having invested in or advised more than 50 early stage startups and 20 venture funds.
BACKGROUND
Home Run and Climate Corporation
A founding member of Home Run, acquired for over $100 million less than 18 months after launch, and an early member of Climate Corporation, acquired for more than a billion.
The iconic companies the GPs they back either founded or helped build; what used to be an angel or a scout for programmes like Sequoia has now been stood up as a fund.
GP
Andy Konwinski
Co-founder of Databricks and Perplexity, looking every day at commercialising AI research coming out of the top labs.
GP
Jack Altman
Investing on the back of his experience at Lattice, alongside his brother Sam.
FUND
Laude
An AI fund they have invested in, focused on research coming out of the top labs such as Berkeley, Stanford and Harvard; Databricks, which Andy co-founded, is a $62 billion company.
THE ARGUMENT
CONCEPT
Right to win
The question he puts to every manager, and to family offices weighing direct deals: why are you the one getting this allocation when everyone already in the company will scratch and claw to put more money in.
TREND
Decline of the generalist
Unless you are Sequoia or maybe Benchmark; the push is towards specialists in space, defence, deep tech and AI.
SPINOUTS
GP spinouts from large firms
He expects some to be very successful but does not invest in them, because Crossover ties the right to win to operating and founder experience.