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Indexing Venture Capital

Most VCs believe data will transform every industry, except their own. That contradiction sparked something radical.

JUNE 202535 MINGUEST · ROB HODGKINSON

TOP 5% 1,500 SERIES B SIGNALRANK
At seed stage, venture is still artisanal. But at later stages, it starts to resemble public markets.
Rob Hodgkinson · on where data takes over from judgement
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60% / top 5%Share of the Series B market SignalRank sees, and the slice of it the algorithm invests in
10% → 30%Probability of identifying a company that delivers 5x MOIC from Series B, against a market average of 10%
35Investments in two years, making them the most active Series B investor globally outside Andreessen Horowitz
1,500 / 100Series Bs a year, of which around 100 qualify; they currently see 25 to 30% of those
ABOUT THE EPISODE

Rob Hodgkinson, MD at SignalRank, isn't just another venture person. He's part of a quiet revolution, one that's rewriting how we pick winners in venture capital.

Instead of betting on founders or decks, they bet on investor track records. Instead of chasing hype, they eliminate zeros through an algorithm that mimics the logic of hedge funds.

And just like that, a radically new approach to venture capital reveals itself: high precision, low recall investing at Series B.

  • LPs get index-like exposure with vintage diversification.
  • Seed investors get pro-rata access they otherwise couldn't afford.
  • The SignalRank Index may one day be listed like a public ETF.

It's a new paradigm. An entirely different way to be in venture. The age of artisanal investing is giving way to systematic precision.

And they have gained ground rapidly. SignalRank sees 60% of the Series B market and invests in the top 5%. In two short years, they've become the second most active Series B investor globally, right behind a16z.

Ask yourself: if 50%+ of public assets are indexed, why is venture still hand-crafted?

IN HIS WORDS
MENTIONED

FIRMS & FUNDS

FIRM

SignalRank

An index of the top 5% of Series B deals, accessed through the pro rata rights of existing seed investors; a network of around 300 seed partners feeds it roughly 100 Series B term sheets a month.

CO-INVESTORS

Andreessen Horowitz, Sequoia, YC, Lightspeed

The top co-investors alongside SignalRank at Series B; in 2025 they had already invested in five Sequoia-backed Series Bs.

PRO RATA

Alpha Partners, Proof

Named as others doing a good job in the pro rata space.

HEDGE FUND

Marshall Wace

Europe's biggest hedge fund; about half its AUM runs through the TOPS program, which ranks sell-side broker recommendations.

ALLOCATORS

BlackRock, StepStone, Coatue

Cited as evidence the whole market is moving towards democratization of access, alongside Larry Fink's annual letter and the Preqin acquisition.

PEOPLE

GUEST

Rob Hodgkinson

Managing Director at SignalRank; a VC in London 10 to 15 years ago, then led a video startup acquired in 2019, and moved to the US in 2020.

CO-FOUNDER

Keith Teare

Co-founded Europe's first internet service provider and, in 2005, TechCrunch; built the data-led strategy for identifying the top 5% of Series Bs that Rob joined in 2020.

REFERENCED

Alfred Winslow Jones

Creator of the first hedge fund, who scored brokers on the performance of their recommendations.

REFERENCED

Mark Andreessen, Andre Retterath

Andreessen on VC being one of the last professions to be automated; Retterath's data-driven VC community on pushing the tooling space forward.

HOST

Rohit Yadav

Investments thought leader, Big Book of VC.

CONCEPTS & DATA

CONCEPT

High precision, low recall

Sector and geography agnostic; the model says no to many great companies because they don't fit the pattern, and misses some unicorns as a result.

ECONOMICS

20% deal-by-deal carry

Invest $1M, the company 10x's, and the seed partner gets a cheque for $1.8M; deals can close within a week on light diligence of term sheets and cap tables.

EXAMPLE

Instacart

Used as the case for Series B insulation from post-IPO downside: the last round to make money at the IPO was the Series B.

STUDY

PitchBook on network effects

Well-networked investors don't just raise the upside, they drastically reduce failure rates.

SNAPSHOT

Indexing Venture Capital →

The full written snapshot of this interview on the Rethink site.

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