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BEYOND THE REPORT · A CONVERSATION CARRYING THE RETHINK THESIS FORWARD

Secondaries in venture

It starts in 2009, helping a Facebook employee cash out their stock options. Companies now stay private for twenty years, and the old playbook of waiting for the IPO no longer counts as liquidity.

OCTOBER 202542 MINGUEST · JARED CARMEL

3 YRS 13 YRS 20 YRS SECONDARIES AS THE RELEASE VALVE MVP
If equity grants keep expiring worthless, then these companies can't attract top talent. That threatens innovation itself.
Jared Carmel · on why employee liquidity is mission critical
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2.2xAverage net DPI with an under four year hold period, against a venture industry average of around 13 years, on $1.5 billion of AUM
55% → 13%How far secondary discounts have compressed; the market has grown around four times over the past decade to almost $70 billion
15,000 / 4,300Mature VC-backed companies against US publicly listed companies, with over $600 billion of undistributed value in funds hitting the ten year mark
17 yearsHow long it would take to clear the backlog of ten year old unicorns at a historical IPO pace: 750 unicorns, over 420 of them already ten years old
ABOUT THE EPISODE

Who doesn't love a hustle story? Especially in venture capital. This one starts in 2009, with Jared Carmel helping a Facebook employee cash out their stock options. Fast forward: he's now running Manhattan Venture Partners, a $1.5B secondaries powerhouse, ranked top 5 in the U.S.

And here's the punchline: venture's old playbook, fund startups, wait for the IPO, call it liquidity, is broken. The real shift? Secondaries.

  • Companies stay private for 20 years.
  • Employees can't wait that long to pay their bills.
  • Wall Street is piling in, discounts collapsing from 55% to 13%.

This is the biggest structural shift in venture capital history. Secondaries aren't just the future of liquidity, they're becoming the new foundation of venture capital.

IN HIS WORDS
CHAPTERS

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MENTIONED

FIRM & PEOPLE

FIRM

Manhattan Venture Partners

Pioneering the institutionalization of venture secondaries since 2014, now over $1.5 billion in AUM; PitchBook named MVP a top five US secondary investor.

FUND

MVP All-Star Fund

The core business, landing in primary rounds through the advisory arm and its secondary as a service line; Bloomberg ranked the All-Star Funds number two and three in the top ten best performing VC funds under $500 million AUM in 2025.

EARLIER

Citizen VC and G Squared

He ran secondary markets at what is now G Squared, then left for Citizen VC, where the team helped write the SEC's Citizen VC Rule in 2015 before being pushed out.

HOST

Rohit Yadav

Investments thought leader, Big Book of VC.

PORTFOLIO

REALISED

Coinbase, Palantir, Spotify, Airbnb, DraftKings

Among the companies behind a track record of more than 18 IPOs, 19 counting Klarna, and six strategic sales.

CURRENT

Anthropic, xAI, Kodiak Robotics, HawkEye 360, RapidSOS, Agility

The deep tech side of the current portfolio, alongside transformative companies such as Epic Games, SpaceX, Klarna and Revolut.

POSITION

The June 2022 down round

A company they loved on fundamentals that had to raise into a banking licence requirement at the wrong time; they backed the truck up and took their largest position, well into nine figures, and felt vindicated by the recent IPO.

MARKET STRUCTURE

DEALS

OpenAI, Databricks, Stripe

A $10 billion OpenAI secondary in progress; Databricks' $15 billion round with $10 billion of secondary; Stripe's $6.5 billion structured round.

BANKS

Citi, JP Morgan, Morgan Stanley, UBS

All now running desks for this, some chasing assets for advisors, others positioning for IPO mandates.

LANGUAGE

Tomorrow's IPOs today, distressed sellers and disruptive companies

His terms for the strategy; distressed sellers, disruptive companies was the thesis of his fourth fund back in 2019 and has proven persistent.

BACKLOG

The 2030 picture

On his assumptions, almost 580 companies will still be ten years or older, expanding the addressable market for secondaries even if IPOs return.

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