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BEYOND THE REPORT · A CONVERSATION CARRYING THE RETHINK THESIS FORWARD

Geopolitics in European venture

One of the most surprising turnaround stories right now isn't a brand. It's a region: Europe.

SEPTEMBER 202539 MINGUEST · HENRY PALMER

SERIES B KILL ZONE LIGHTRIDGE
Build back our economy's capacity to create great wealth in the future, and also to make the world a slightly safer place.
Henry Palmer · on what is next for Lightridge
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2% → 5%The increase in NATO contributions, alongside the general acceleration of defence spending since the war in Ukraine
~30%How much defence spending has risen in Europe overall
3 to 5%The share of total global supply chains he expects to return to domestic resilience and sovereignty, 10% at best
4Verticals: materials, advanced manufacturing, logistics, and dual purpose defence
ABOUT THE EPISODE

For decades, Europe played the background track in geopolitics: comfortable under Pax Americana, importing cheap energy, outsourcing security, and letting its industrial base thin out. That era ended the moment Russian tanks rolled into Ukraine. And suddenly, the continent that perfected managed scarcity is being forced to rediscover risk, scale, and hard power.

Here's what's happening:

  • Defense tech isn't taboo anymore. A generation of founders who once refused to sell to defense are now asking, "How can we help?"
  • Series B is a kill zone. Hardware and defense startups can vibe through Seed and A, but by B you're burning millions per test flight. Patient capital, debt, and government R&D aren't optional, they're survival.
  • Industrial resilience is cool again. Rare earth alternatives, AI-driven factories, logistics automation. The "boring" verticals are now the battlegrounds for sovereignty.
  • Family offices are back in the spotlight. They're not just LPs chasing returns. They're shipping, automotive, and manufacturing dynasties looking for foresight and strategic intelligence.

The bigger story? Venture is no longer apolitical. Every investment is now a bet on sovereignty, resilience, and who gets to write the next chapter of the global economy. This isn't just about chasing IRR. It's about whether Europe chooses to be a buyer of future technologies, or a builder of them.

IN HIS WORDS
CHAPTERS

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MENTIONED

FIRMS & INSTITUTIONS

FIRM

Lightridge

Early stage, thematic, investing predominantly in the US, UK and German markets, across materials, advanced manufacturing, logistics and dual purpose defence. A very new fund: at the time of recording it had not yet made its first investment.

PRIOR FUND

Amplifier Ventures

The micro early stage firm he founded in 2019, largely a solo GP fund, focused on manufacturing, logistics and industrial transformation.

INSTITUTE

European Ambition Institute

Co-founded with Will Dufton and Brett Bivens, who he says deserve the credit: round tables and discussions putting a European spin on similar efforts in the United States.

FAMILY OFFICE

alfa8

The family office of one of Europe's largest ship owners, which has backed multiple of his funds and where he is a venture partner and advisor.

PORTFOLIO FROM AMPLIFIER

US

Terminal Industries

Yard automation for warehousing, building out the computer vision layer to drive efficiency in those spaces.

GERMANY

Hive

Warehousing and fulfilment, integrating into the point of sale with e-commerce customers and building the technology stack into the warehouse itself, rather than the classic software-only asset-light play.

UK

Isembard

A new manufacturing play building Mason OS, an operating system for CNC and highly automated nanofactories.

THEMES

POLICY

Mario Draghi

Cited on the rhetoric that Europe needs to change course away from managed scarcity and risk control.

MATERIALS

Rare earths

What the alternatives are, and how to rebuild resilience in those supply chains; he also points to a polymer 3D printing company changing speed, cost and tensile strength, selling into defence and automotive.

SOVEREIGNTY

UK steel

His worked example of the trade-off: virgin steel capacity is critical to military capability, whether or not the UK can compete on global steel markets.

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